Adaptive machine learning for forecasting in wind energy : A dynamic, multi-algorithmic approach for short and long-term predictions

Abstract

This study elucidates the formulation and validation of a dynamic hybrid model for wind energy forecasting, with a particular emphasis on its capability for both short-term and long-term predictive accuracy. The model is predicated on the assimilation of time-series data from past wind energy generation and employs a triad of machine learning algorithms: Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN). Empirical data, harvested from a 2 MW grid-connected wind turbine, served as the basis for the training and validation phases. A comparative evaluation methodology was devised to scrutinize the performance of each constituent algorithm across a diverse array of metrics. This evaluation framework facilitated the identification of individual algorithmic limitations, which were subsequently mitigated through the implementation of a dynamic switching mechanism within the hybrid model. This innovative feature enables the model to adaptively select the most efficacious forecasting technique based on historical performance data. The hybrid model demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy in both, short-term energy forecasts at 15-min intervals over a day, and in broad, long-term. It recorded a Normalized Mean Absolute Error (NMAE) of 5.54 %, which is notably lower than the NMAE range of 5.65 %–9.22 % observed in other tested models, and significantly better than the average NMAE found in the literature, which spans from 6.73 % to 10.07 %. Such versatility renders it invaluable for grid operators and wind farm management, aiding in both operational and strategic planning. The study’s findings not only contribute to the existing body of knowledge in renewable energy forecasting but also suggest the hybrid model’s broader applicability in various other predictive analytics domains.