Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling

Vadadi Fülöp, Cs., Hufnagel, Levente, Sipkay, Csaba and Verasztó, Cs. (2008) Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 6 (1). pp. 1-28.

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In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature, but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However, because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year, these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios, we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKHI and UKLO, which predict drastic global warming, then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio, where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later), whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535, GFDL 5564 and UKTR, a transition could be noticed.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:hydrobiology, community, ecosystem, climate change
Divisions:Faculty of Horticultural Science > Department of Mathematics and Informatics
Projects:OTKA T042583, NKFP 4/037/2001, VAHAVA
ID Code:1381
Deposited By: Ádám Hoffmann
Deposited On:20 Nov 2013 12:09
Last Modified:20 Nov 2013 12:09

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