The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species

Trájer, Attila János, Bede-Fazekas, Ákos, Hufnagel, Levente, Horváth, Levente and Bobvos, János (2013) The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 11 (2). pp. 189-208.

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Our study intended to explore the potential distributionshif of Phlebotomusariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. We used climate envelope modeling (CEM) method to determine the ecological requirements of the species and to model the potential distribution for three periods (1961-1990, 2011-2040, and 2041- 2070). We found that by the end of the 2060’s the Southern UK, Germany, entire France and also the western part of Poland can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasishowe the greatest potential northward expansion, from 49°N to 59°N. For all of the studied sand fly species the entire Mediterranean Basin, the Balkan Peninsula, the Carpathian Basin, and northern coastline of the Black Sea are potentially suitable. The length of the predicted active period of the vectors will increase with one or two months.

Item Type:Article
Series Number / Identification Number:MTMT:2334109
Uncontrolled Keywords:leishmaniasis, climate change, Phlebotomus, potential distribution, climate envelope model
Divisions:Faculty of Horticultural Science > Department of Biometrics and Agrarinformatics
Faculty of Landscape Architecture > Department of Garden and Open Space Design
Funders:John Bolyai Research Scholarship of Hungarian Academy of Sciences
ID Code:1426
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:23 Jan 2014 09:02
Last Modified:09 Jul 2015 12:56

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