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Corvinus

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

Bede-Fazekas, Ákos and Horváth, Levente and Kocsis, Márton (2014) Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines. Időjárás / Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 118 (1). pp. 41-52.

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Official URL: http://www.met.hu/omsz/kiadvanyok/idojaras/index.php?id=366


Abstract

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

Item Type:Article
Series Number / Identification Number:MTMT:2564348
Uncontrolled Keywords:Mediterranean pines, climate envelope model, CEM, potential distribution, climate change, distribution modeling, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Pinus pinea
Subjects:Landscape planning, landscape protection, landscape design
Meteorology
Ecology
ID Code:1511
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:01 Apr 2014 06:56
Last Modified:09 Jul 2015 13:17

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