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Modeling the future distribution of Mediterranean Pinus species

Bede-Fazekas, Ákos (2013) Modeling the future distribution of Mediterranean Pinus species. In: Science for Sustainability International Scientific Conference for PhD Students. Nyugat-magyarországi Egyetem Kiadó, Sopron, pp. 149-154. . ISBN 978 963 334 103 2

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Official URL: http://nymetalentum.hu/img/Science_for_Sustainability-Proceedings.pdf

mediterranean pines, climate envelope model, potential distribution, climate change, distribution modeling

Abstract

The potential future distribution of four Mediterranean pines was aimed to be modeled supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The studied species were Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, and Pinus pinea. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The model results show explicit shift of the distributions to the north in case of three of the four studied species. The future (2041-70) climate of Western Hungary seems to be suitable for Pinus pinaster.

Item Type:Book Section
Subjects:Landscape planning, landscape protection, landscape design
ID Code:1689
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:25 Sep 2014 13:33
Last Modified:25 Sep 2014 13:33

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