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Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary

Nováky, Erzsébet and Orosz, Miklós (2015) Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary. Journal of Futures Studies, 19 (4). pp. 31-50.

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Official URL: http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/?page_id=5462


Abstract

We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change interventions are then provided.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:chaos theory, futures studies, behaviour of macro indicators, socio-economic renewal, Hungary
Subjects:Futures Research
ID Code:1987
Deposited By: Ádám Hoffmann
Deposited On:09 Jul 2015 15:04
Last Modified:09 Jul 2015 15:04

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