Corvinus
Corvinus

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

Ciscar, Juan Carlos and Iglesias, Ana and Feyen, Luc and Szabó , László and Van Regemorter, Denise and Amelung, Bas and Nicholls, Robert and Watkiss, Paul and Christensen, Ole B. and Dankers, Rutger and Garrote, Luis and Goodess, Claire M. and Hunt, Alistair and Moreno, Alvaro and Richards, Julie and Soria, Antonio (2010) Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108 (7). pp. 2678-2683. DOI 10.1073/pnas.1011612108

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/7/2678.abstract

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

Abstract

Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:klímapolitka
JEL classification:Q40 - Energy: General
Subjects:Energy economy
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1011612108
ID Code:2739
Deposited By: Péter Kotek
Deposited On:22 Mar 2017 14:18
Last Modified:22 Mar 2017 14:18

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