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Fossil or hydro based capacity development? - Power sector modelling in the South-East European Region

Pató, Zsuzsanna and Mezősi, András and Szabó, László (2016) Fossil or hydro based capacity development? - Power sector modelling in the South-East European Region. In: EEM 2016 - 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market: Modelling, simulation and forecasting of energy and carbon markets: Markets and Policy II, 6-9 June 2016, Porto, Portugal.

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Official URL: http://rekk.hu/downloads/academic_publications/2016_fossil_or_hydro_Pato_Mezosi_Szabo.pdf


Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of current generation and interconnection capacity plans on the generation mix of the five South East European countries (Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia) in the context of carbon price levels and assesses the conditions for the exploitation of the existing hydro potential. Future electricity mix of the five countries are analyzed – using the European Electricity Market Model (EEMM) of REKK - for 3 scenarios up to 2030 assuming different conditions for electricity supply and demand. We have found that vulnerability due to weather dependent hydro generation is a relevant policy issue that needs to be tackled if the available hydro potential is to be exploited more in the future in the SEE region. Higher interconnection would allow for import even in dry years with a more limited number of new coal plants actually planned in the region as countries would have unconstrained access to them.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:árampiac, klímapolitika, piaci integráció
JEL classification:Q40 - Energy: General
Subjects:Energy economy
ID Code:2754
Deposited By: Péter Kotek
Deposited On:29 Mar 2017 10:01
Last Modified:29 Mar 2017 10:01

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