Corvinus
Corvinus

Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

Darvas, Zsolt (2010) Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe. Working Paper. BCE Matematikai Közgazdaságtan és Gazdaságelemzés tanszék, Budapest.

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Official URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/


Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use crosscountry growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

Item Type:Monograph (Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:crisis, economic growth, growth regressions, transition countries, JEL: C31; C33; O47
Subjects:Economic policy
Economic development
International economics
ID Code:306
Deposited By: Ádám Hoffmann
Deposited On:09 Mar 2011 13:35
Last Modified:03 Jul 2012 00:24

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