Risk-adjusted pricing of project loans

Walter, György (2019) Risk-adjusted pricing of project loans. STUDIES IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, 2019 . DOI 10.1108/SEF-05-2018-0149

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Commercial banks were inspired to apply risk-adjusted pricing models for their corporate exposures in the last decade. Project loans represent a sub-segment of corporate loans, where risk parameters are hard to measure, and estimations of default probabilities rely on specific cash-flow simulations. Our research question is whether project finance loans were properly priced based on their risk. We take the usual corporate loan model for calculating risk-adjusted pricing and adapt it to project loans. In our simulation we focus on the European market andestimate the minimum required margins and also the implied maximum probabilities of default, where project loans could produce a value added to lenders besides different margins and leverages. We compare these maximum probabilities of default with reference points of other empirical studies. We conclude that in 2006-2007 several projects were very unlikely to produce any value added for shareholders and pricing did not even reach the minimum margin. We also show that market and regulatory circumstances of 2016-2017 have significantly increased minimum margin levels and must have shifted lenders to a more conservative pricing and leverage policy.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Project finance, Pricing, Default prediction, ROC analysis, Bank lending
JEL classification:G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
G21 - Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation
G32 - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
ID Code:4126
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:26 Jun 2019 11:48
Last Modified:26 Jun 2019 11:54

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