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Anatomy and lessons of the global financial crisis. Is US consumption financed by Chinese savings?

Móczár, József (2010) Anatomy and lessons of the global financial crisis. Is US consumption financed by Chinese savings? Pénzügyi Szemle / Public Finance Quarterly - Journal of Public Finance, 55 (4). pp. 753-775.

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Official URL: http://www.asz.hu/en/public-finance-quarterly/archive


Abstract

Savings and investments in the American money market by emerging countries, primarily China, financed the excessive consumption of the United States in the early 2000s, which indirectly led to a global financial crisis. The crisis started from the real estate mortgage market. Such balance disrupting processes began on the American financial market which contradicted all previously known equilibrium theories of every school of economics. Economics has yet to come up with models or empirical theories for this new disequilibrium. This is why the outbreak of the crisis could not be prevented or at least predicted. The question is, to what extent can existing market theories, calculation methods and the latest financial products be held responsible for the new situation. This paper studies the influence of the efficient market and modern portfolio theory, as well as Li’s copula function on the American investment market. Naturally, the issues of moral risks and greed, credit ratings and shareholder control, limited liability and market regulations are aspects, which cannot be ignored. In summary, the author outlines the potential alternative measures that could be applied to prevent a new crisis, defines the new directions of economic research and draws the conclusion for the Hungarian economic policy.

Item Type:Article
Subjects:Mathematics, Econometrics
Finance
ID Code:667
Deposited By: Ádám Hoffmann
Deposited On:11 Jun 2012 11:41
Last Modified:11 Jun 2012 11:41

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