Macroeconomic assessment of possible Green Recovery scenarios in Visegrad countries

Kiss-Dobronyi, Bence ORCID:, Fazekas, Dóra and Pollitt, Hector (2021) Macroeconomic assessment of possible Green Recovery scenarios in Visegrad countries. Society and Economy, 43 (3). pp. 227-252. DOI

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The article discusses how and why Green Recovery could be beneficial for the Visegrad countries based on a modelling exercise using the E3ME macroeconometric model. Green Recovery is defined as including policies in recovery plans that not only target economic recovery, but also contribute to environmental targets. The paper proposes that a Green Recovery could be valuable and suitable for the region contributing to both restoring employment and boosting economic activity as well as reaching climate goals. This is tested through a macroeconomic simulation, using the E3ME model. E3ME is built on PostKeynesian economic theory and on econometric estimations of macroeconomic relationships. The results of the analysis focus on three dimensions: (1) social – employment, (2) environmental – level of CO2 emissions and (3) economic activity – gross domestic product (GDP). Outcomes indicate that a green recovery can shorten the time needed for employment and economic recovery as well as contributes to CO2 emission reductions. In Hungary, Czechia and Poland, the impact persists into the long-term; however, the paper also concludes that countries with high reliance on coal (e.g. Poland) could return to coal in the long term if no further policies are introduced.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Green Recovery, renewable energy, V4 countries, Covid-19
JEL classification:E62 - Fiscal Policy
Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q58 - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
Subjects:Economic policy
International economics
ID Code:6758
Deposited By: Veronika Vitéz
Deposited On:03 Sep 2021 09:27
Last Modified:03 Sep 2021 09:27

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