How to win the first Olympic medal? And the second?

Abstract

Objectives: We investigate the determinants of Olympic success. We distinguish between the probability of winning a medal and the overall Olympic success. Furthermore, we examine the impact of the three superpowers (China, Russia, and the United States). Beyond Olympic success as measured by medals, we also investigate the impact of other dependent variables considering additional rankings. Methods: We use sport-level data for seven Summer Olympic Games (1996–2021), applying weighted market share as a performance indicator to differentiate types of medals and rankings. We employ zero-inflated beta regressions to estimate separately the probability of having zero market share at the Olympics and the determinants of Olympic success. Results: Our estimations suggest that population positively influences Olympic success. Estimations highlight the role of superpower countries and sports-level effects in explaining Olympic success. Better economic status is associated with winning a medal at the Olympic Games, but not with the number of medals that have been won. When using different outcome variables for Olympic success, considering not only medal rankings, the determinants of success change significantly. Conclusion: Countries without previous Olympic success should collect economic and human resources to obtain their first medal at the Games.