Who is using AI to code? : Global diffusion and impact of generative AI

Daniotti, Simone ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-5974-9490, Wachs, Johannes ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9044-2018, Feng, Xiangnan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8736-5018 and Neffke, Frank ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3924-6636 (2026) Who is using AI to code? : Global diffusion and impact of generative AI. Science . DOI 10.1126/science.adz9311

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adz9311

Abstract

Generative coding tools promise big productivity gains, but uneven uptake could widen skill and income gaps. We train a neural classifier to spot AI-generated Python functions in over 30 million GitHub commits by 160,097 software developers, tracking how fast, and where, these tools take hold. Currently AI writes an estimated 29% of Python functions in the US, a shrinking lead over other countries. We estimate quarterly output, measured in online code contributions, consequently increased by 3.6%. AI seems to benefit experienced, senior-level developers: they increased productivity and more readily expanded into new domains of software development. In contrast, early-career developers showed no significant benefits from AI adoption. This may widen skill gaps and reshape future career ladders in software development.

Item Type:

Article

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Generative coding tools; Artificial Intelligence (AI); Generative AI; Python; Software development;

Divisions:

Institute of Data Analytics and Information Systems

Subjects:

Automatizálás, gépesítés
Computer science

Funders:

Hungarian National Scientific Fund

Projects:

FK-145960