An evaluation of decoupling in the Hungarian economy

Abstract

The paper examines the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Hungary from 1995 to 2022 using the Tapio decoupling model and the Mann-Kendall trend test. The Tapio decoupling elasticity coefficient (DI) was used to assess the relation between economic activity and environmental impact. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to detect monotonic trends in Gross Value Added (GVA) and emissions, revealing their statistical significance and direction of change. The results revealed varying decoupling trends across various sectors. Strong decoupling occurred in sectors like B, C, D, and E, where emissions decreased alongside economic growth, reflecting technological advancements and structural shifts. Weak decoupling was observed in sectors such as A, F, G, and Q, where emissions grew more slowly than GVA, indicating progress but falling short of full decoupling. Conversely, sector T exhibited expansive negative decoupling, revealing unsustainable growth. At the national level, data from recent years have shown a trend toward absolute decoupling, in which GVA grew as emissions stabilized or declined. The Mann-Kendall test confirmed consistent economic growth across all sectors but diverse emission trends. Sectors like B and E achieved significant reductions in emissions, while others, including A and T, recorded increases.