Behavioral response to convenience : A natural experiment on door-to-door selective waste collection

Abstract

This study evaluates the behavioral effects and impact of the curbside double-bin system, which represents a specific form of door-to-door selective waste collection, using a natural experimental design and the COVID-19 pandemic as an exogenous shock. A two-way fixed effects (TWFE) regression model, based on a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, was applied to municipal-level panel data collected from 93 Hungarian municipalities between 2012 and 2023. The aim of the research is to isolate the causal impact of selective waste collection infrastructure under conditions of external pressure. Municipalities equipped with curbside double-bin systems were found to generate, on average, 11.76 kilograms more selectively collected waste per capita annually, relative to those without such systems, while the volume of mixed waste remained stable. These findings suggest that the presence of convenient waste sorting infrastructure contributed to an increase in overall waste generation, rather than a substitution between waste streams. This outcome has been interpreted as evidence of the Perceived Disposal Ease Bias, whereby the effortlessness of disposal encourages higher material throughput. The results underscore the importance of accounting for behavioral responses when evaluating the environmental effectiveness of waste management policies. It is recommended that convenience-enhancing infrastructure be supplemented with targeted communication and behavioral interventions to ensure alignment with sustainability objectives. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study represents one of the first empirical applications of a quasi-experimental framework to assess the behavioral implications of selective collection systems under external shocks.