Increasing poverty: The impact of Russian-Ukrainian war on Central Asia

Abstract

Central Asia, historically closely tied to Russia and Ukraine, has experienced severe repercussions from the 2022 Russian–Ukrainian war. The five Central Asian nations – Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – have faced worsened poverty and an increased vulnerability of households. The paper employs a postcolonial theoretical perspective to investigate the nuanced effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the region. The results show that even after three decades of independence Central Asia remains economically, politically and militarily dependent on Russia. Shocks in the Russian economy have had significant effects on the region which has not recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic. The military conflict has triggered persistent poverty and inequality issues, stalling the progress made by Central Asia in reducing poverty over the past two decades. After two years, the economic damage has been substantial and long-term negative outcomes of the conflict are about to come.