The enrichment of post-growth future alternatives for Europe using an online integral foresight methodology

Abstract

The article explores trends, weak signals, and possible pathways for the feasibility of the post-growth concept in Europe, based on an integrated foresight process. The proper formulation of comprehensive future alternatives or scenarios depends on the ability to identify visible and perceptible changes on the horizon and the possible futures that can be derived from these elements. The integral foresight method combines the processing of literature on possible futures from a post-growth and from a sustainable development perspective with horizon scanning and scenario building methods. The main features of the methodology are online interactivity, a multi-round discussion and learning process between the researchers, experts and futurists working in different fields and dealing with the topic of post-growth or sustainability. The result of the future-shaping collaboration process is a list of filtered, refined, and categorized futures statements covering different STEEPLED dimensions and scenarios in which the vision of post-growth was developed under different assumptions. The findings show that according to the experts’ expectations, many of the current trends hinder European society to achieve strong sustainability, but there are opportunities for intervention, the desirable alternatives are not out of sight, and humanity’s flourishing within planetary boundaries can be reached through the democratic caring for nature.