Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

Bede-Fazekas, Ákos (2013) Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line. Journal of environmental geography, 6 (1-2). pp. 21-27. DOI 10.2478/v10326-012-0003-3

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Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate data-set, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.

Item Type:Article
Series Number / Identification Number:MTMT:2278194
Uncontrolled Keywords:climate change, REMO, Climate envelope model, phytogeography, Moesz line, model improvement
Divisions:Faculty of Landscape Architecture > Department of Garden and Open Space Design
ID Code:1421
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:23 Jan 2014 15:40
Last Modified:09 Jul 2015 12:48

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