Adjusted Czech, Hungarian and Slovak Fertility Rates Compared with the Traditional Total Fertility Rate

Abstract

In this paper the Czech, Hungarian and Slovak fertility trends are compared between 1970 and 2011, using four different fertility rates. Three of them are calculated period fertility indicators (traditional total fertility rate, Bongaarts–Feeney tempo-and parity-adjusted total fertility rate, Kohler–Ortega tempo-and parity-adjusted total fertility rate), while the fourth measure is the observed completed cohort fertility rate. It is demonstrated that between 1990and 2011 the adjusted fertility numbers were higher than the total fertility rate in all three countries, but they didn’t reach the replacement fertility level. By comparing the period and completed cohort fertility rates, the most accurate fertility indicator is selected. The authors state that until 1977 (while the mean age of women at the birth of their first child decreased in the Czech Republic and Hungary (but not in Slovakia)), the Kohler-Ortega adjusted fertility rates performed best for the first parity, but for the second and third birth orders and from the mid-1970s for of all birth orders the Bongaarts–Feeney adjusted fertility rates gave closer approximation of the completed cohort fertility in each of the countries.