Industry 4.0 and some social consequences: Impact assessment by microsimulation for Hungary

Cserháti, Ilona and Pirisi, Károly (2020) Industry 4.0 and some social consequences: Impact assessment by microsimulation for Hungary. Society and Economy, 42 (2). pp. 105-123. DOI

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The expected future impact of the fourth industrial revolution is a hotly debated issue in the literature. The majority of papers focus on quantifying the expected impacts on labour demand, or on a specific country, or on huge macro-regions – and the estimates differ widely. Our paper focuses on the impact assessment of Industry 4.0 on the expected structure of employment, wages and inequalities in Hungary. We built a static microsimulation model for our analysis, where the “EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions Hungary 2017” dataset was used as a starting point. Projections by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) were used for policy simulations on future employment by sector and by occupational group for each European Union (EU) member state. The analysis also elaborates our own augmented vision about the expected labour demand changes and expected wage trends. Based on this information, the spill-over effects were calculated regarding wage structure and inequalities by sector, region and the highest educational attainment.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:employment, labour demand, wage structure, skills, microsimulation
JEL classification:C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size and Structure
J23 - Labor Demand
J24 - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
J31 - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
Subjects:Economic development
ID Code:6145
Deposited By: Veronika Vitéz
Deposited On:04 Dec 2020 11:54
Last Modified:04 Dec 2020 11:54

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