Varga, Lívia (2020) Sztochasztikus népesség-előrejelzés magyar adatokon. Manual. Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem, Budapest. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
Jelen kutatás első felének célja annak bemutatása, hogy a nemzetközi szakirodalomban elterjedt sztochasztikus mortalitási modellek alkalmasak-e a halálozási arányszám előrejelzésére Magyarországon és a kapott eredmények felhasználhatóak-e a magyar népességszám modell alapú, valószínűségi előreszámításához. Lee és Carter 1992-ben megalkotott modellje nagy hatást gyakorolt a sztochasztikus mortalitási modellek fejlődésére. Lee és Carter modelljéből kiindulva jött létre az általánosított kor–periódus–kohorsz modellkeret (angolul ’generalized age–period–cohort stochastic mortality models’, röviden GAPC). Jelen tanulmány ennek a modellcsaládnak a tagjait ismerteti, illetve alkalmazza magyar adatokon. A cél a legjobban illeszkedő modell megtalálása. (...)
Item Type: | Monograph (Manual) |
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Subjects: | General statistics |
Funders: | ITM Kooperatív Doktori Program, NKFIH |
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ID Code: | 7334 |
Deposited By: | Ádám Hoffmann |
Deposited On: | 25 Mar 2022 10:34 |
Last Modified: | 06 Jan 2023 10:20 |
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