Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production

Pinke, Zsolt László ORCID:, Decsi, Bence ORCID:, Jámbor, Attila, Kardos, Máté Krisztián, Kern, Zoltán ORCID: and Ács, Tamás ORCID: (2022) Climate change and modernization drive structural realignments in European grain production. Scientific Reports, 12 . DOI 10.1038/s41598-022-10670-6

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Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend prevailing over the past decades in the summer and winter seasons has been accompanied by a South to North shift in the harvested areas. The combination of these two processes has meant that the north-eastern sector of the European grain chessboard has emerged as the main beneficiary. There, the relatively low sensitivity of cereals to climatic change plus high economic growth rates have been accompanied by the most dynamic increases in cereal yields on the continent. As a result, a modern version of the 3000 year-old grain distribution system of the Ancient World is being restored before our eyes. One noteworthy finding is that increasing January–March temperatures have had a significant positive impact on wheat yields from Northern to South-Eastern Europe, and this is, at least in part, compensating for the negative impact of summer warming.

Item Type:Article
Subjects:Environmental economics
Projects:NRDI Fund Grant No. BME-NVA-02, NRDI Fund FK 20 Grant Project no. 134547
ID Code:7414
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:20 May 2022 10:40
Last Modified:20 May 2022 10:40

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