Onset analysis of the frozen conflict taking place in Eastern-Ukraine

Abstract

The paper discusses the background of the ongoing frozen conflict in Eastern- Ukraine. Within the country groups of the Post-Soviet region, especially among those countries which became independent from the Soviet Union directly, this is not the first case to experience these kinds of conflicts. Prominent examples are Moldova and Georgia for frozen conflicts from the mentioned region. These countries are facing major geopolitical challenges since declaring their independence. This paper aims to analyze the background of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, to understand the real cause behind the breakout of violence. The paper forms the hypothesis that the real driving forces and motivations were not ancient hatred or the involvement of the Russian Government, but rather the clash of local elites and their promises of opportunities for better living. To prove this, the paper uses the scholarly work of Civil War Studies focusing on qualitative methods. The paper suggests that although the involvement of the Russian troops was proven, the conflict itself cannot only be considered as a hybrid-war between two Eastern- European countries, as it also shows signs of a classic civil war. The paper will discuss all the criteria of a classic civil war, and in the conclusion it will form a clear statement regarding this conflict.