A panel analysis of fertility trends in Europe, with a special emphasis on CEE countries

Németh, András Olivér and Németh, Petra and Tőkés, László (2023) A panel analysis of fertility trends in Europe, with a special emphasis on CEE countries. Working Paper. Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest.

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The aim of our research is to understand and reveal the key economic, demographic, labour market, and other factors behind the common fertility trends of CEE countries in the past decades. Our main research question is what driving forces played a role in the development of the total fertility rate in the CEE countries compared to the rest of Europe, if any. We measure the effect of potential influential factors on fertility with a multiple regression using the ordinary least squares method. We use macro-level data from 27 countries of the European Union with special attention to the 11 CEE countries (namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Based on the availability of data, our examination period lasts from 1995 to 2020. Our results suggest that fertility in the CEE countries is much more sensitive to the state of the economy than in other European countries. Moreover, some of the demographic variables that are closely related to childbirth, also have a more recognisable effect on the TFR than in other parts of Europe. On the other hand, labour market and policy variables seem to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe.

Item Type:Monograph (Working Paper)
Series Name:Corvinus Economics Working Papers - CEWP
Series Number / Identification Number:2023/02
Uncontrolled Keywords:fertility, Central and Eastern European countries, demographic economics, economic uncertainty, panel data methods
JEL classification:C33 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects and Forecasts
J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J18 - Demographic Economics: Public Policy
Divisions:Institute of Economics
Subjects:Mathematics, Econometrics
Social welfare, insurance, health care

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ID Code:8094
Deposited By: Ádám Hoffmann
Deposited On:24 Mar 2023 13:18
Last Modified:24 Mar 2023 13:18

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