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Use of cues in forecasting tasks: Evidence from sport predictions

Becser, Norbert and Esse, Bálint and Szántó, Richárd (2018) Use of cues in forecasting tasks: Evidence from sport predictions. Society and Economy, 40 (4). pp. 587-603. DOI https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2018.40.4.7

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2018.40.4.7


Abstract

We asked Hungarian students to make soccer forecasts for a round of the Chilean Primera División, which was selected to minimise recognition heuristics, as this league is not followed by Hungarian soccer fans. Students made their forecasts based on cues about the teams. They received sets of cues of different quality based on previously composed expert evaluations of the given information. Although there were interesting findings regarding expertise and gender differences, the central question concerned how students evaluated the cues they received. Results show a pattern that we interpret as the contrast effect in information sets, which is present independent of gender or expertise.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:sports forecasting, cue value, gender differences
JEL classification:D81 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D83 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: Search - Learning - Information and Knowledge - Communication - Belief
Subjects:Decision making
Culture, sport
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2018.40.4.7
ID Code:3977
Deposited By: Ádám Hoffmann
Deposited On:21 Feb 2019 13:41
Last Modified:21 Feb 2019 13:41

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