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Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League : Time for shift to an Elo-based formula

Csató, László ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8705-5036 (2024) Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League : Time for shift to an Elo-based formula. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 24 (2). pp. 119-134. DOI 10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221


Abstract

One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/ 25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Elo method; logistic regression; seeding; tournament design; UEFA Champions League
Divisions:Institute of Operations and Decision Sciences
Subjects:Decision making
Mathematics, Econometrics
DOI:10.1080/24748668.2023.2274221
ID Code:11118
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:30 Apr 2025 13:57
Last Modified:30 Apr 2025 13:57

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