What Will Modi 3.0 Mean for China-India Relations? : From Tawang to Taiwan, assessing the geopolitical rivalry and geostrategic competition

Abstract

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s small margin of victory in the 2024 general elections crushed his hopes for sweeping National Democratic Alliance (NDA) dominance. There was never a question in this election about Modi’sability to win a third term. Rather, it was about the magnitude and extent of his victory. While there has been much debate about the domestic political implications of the election results, there has been less reflection of what a third term for Modi – newly reliant on his coalition to maintain power – means for China-India relations. Despite Modi’s disappointed expectations, his foreign policy objectives are unlikely to deviate from their previous trajectory. We examine several significant factors that will continue to influence Sino-Indian relations in light of Modi’s narrow win.