Battling shadows : analysing the Taliban-TTP nexus in post-2021 security dynamics using natural language processing (NLP)

Abstract

This study examines the evolving relationship between Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Afghan Taliban within the broader context of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts and regional security environment following the United States (U.S.) withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Adopting a mixed-methods approach, the research draws on a diverse corpus of news reports, official statements, and scholarly sources in English, Urdu, and Farsi. Our analysis focuses on the period post-September 1, 2021, using data from the Nexis Uni academic database. Employing Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), the study analyses 2,889 articles to identify thematic patterns and discursive trends. A customised analytical framework categorises the findings into four key components: motivational, religious, ethno-racial, and administrative. By mapping these dimensions, the study offers insights into the factors shaping Pakistan’s strategic posture and decision-making. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on terrorism, counter-terrorism, and regional security in South and Central Asia, with a particular focus on the post-2021 dynamics between Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban, and the TTP.