Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline

Csató, László ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8705-5036 and Petróczy, Dóra Gréta ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8182-3791 (2025) Competitive balance in the UEFA Champions League group stage: Novel measures show no evidence of decline. Annals of Operations Research, 352 . pp. 105-120. DOI 10.1007/s10479-025-06780-9

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-025-06780-9

Abstract

Competitive balance, which refers to the level of control teams have over a sports competition, is a crucial indicator for tournament organisers. According to previous studies, competitive balance has significantly declined in the UEFA Champions League group stage over the recent decades. Our paper introduces alternative indices to investigate this issue. Two ex ante measures are based on Elo ratings, and four dynamic concentration indicators compare the final group ranking to reasonable benchmarks. Using these indices, we find no evidence of any long-run trend in the competitive balance of the UEFA Champions League group stage between the 2003/04 and 2023/24 seasons.

Item Type:

Article

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Competitive balance ; Elo rating ; Football ; Kendall rank correlation ; UEFA Champions League

JEL classification:

L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
Z20 - Sports Economics: General
Z21 - Sports Economics: Industry Studies

Divisions:

Institute of Operations and Decision Sciences

Subjects:

Decision making
Mathematics, Econometrics

Funders:

National Research, Development and Innovation Office Grant, János Bolyai Research Scholarship, HUN-REN Institute for Computer Science and Control