How “Hungaricum” is inflation in Hungary? The classical and specific factors of outstanding inflation in Hungary

Abstract

The study examines the factors shaping inflation in 2022–2023 and explores why inflation in the Hungarian economy has increased more sharply than in neighboring countries with similar structures. The research hypothesis suggests that the inflationary surge, which is notable both globally and within the European Union, is not solely due to market economy mechanisms, but also to specific circumstances in Hungary, including the state’s radical interventions aimed at curbing inflation. The study seeks to highlight these effects and provide recommendations for economic policymakers to develop a more resilient inflation policy. Additionally, it focuses on analyzing inflation in the agricultural sector. The results indicate that, alongside global inflationary pressures, several country-specific factors have driven up the inflation rate in Hungary. Energy prices have risen sharply, and some supply chains from the East have been disrupted. The country under study is less productive, and the impact of the energy price shock on the energy-intensive food industry is higher than in surrounding countries. Consequently, the exchange rate volatility in 2022–2023, combined with short- and medium-term factors, has had a significant impact on food inflation, causing substantial deviations from long-term equilibrium. The research concludes that, in addition to increasing food self-sufficiency, special attention should be given to the domestic development of the agricultural supply chain.