Nord Stream 2 : A prelude to war

Kóczy, László Áron ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8588-6140, Csercsik, Dávid ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5917-1352 and Sziklai, Balázs (2022) Nord Stream 2 : A prelude to war. Energy Strategy Reviews, 44 . DOI 10.1016/j.esr.2022.100982

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.100982

Abstract

To understand the impact of keeping Nord Stream 2 off the map, we model the European natural gas market from the point of view of supply security. Focusing on the network aspects, we propose a novel framework to measure supply security, combining a linear programming approach with a risk assessment technique, expected shortfall (ES) borrowed from finance, particularly suited to measure extreme risk, such as the risk of failing pipelines. Shifting Russian gas exports from Ukraine to Nord Stream 2 increases risks for South-Eastern Europe, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines can only partially alleviate these changes.

Item Type:

Article

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Supply security; Natural gas; Eastern Europe; Nord Stream 2; Expected shortfall

JEL classification:

C60 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling: General
D84 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: Expectations; Speculations
L95 - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
Q37 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade

Divisions:

Faculty of Economics > Department of Operations Research and Actuarial Sciences

Subjects:

Energy economy
Logistics, production management
Political science
International relations

Funders:

Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office, Momentum Programme, János Bolyai Research Scholarship

Projects:

K 128573, K 131545, K 138945, ÚNKP-22-5 New Nationa lExcellence Program, LP2021-2

DOI:

10.1016/j.esr.2022.100982

ID Code:

12370