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Increasing competitiveness by imbalanced groups : the example of the 48-team FIFA World Cup

Csató, László ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8705-5036 and Gyimesi, András ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6333-3318 (2025) Increasing competitiveness by imbalanced groups : the example of the 48-team FIFA World Cup. European Journal of Operational Research . DOI 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.11.025

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.11.025


Abstract

A match played in a sports tournament can be called stakeless if at least one team is indifferent to its outcome because it already has qualified or has been eliminated. Such a game threatens fairness since teams may not exert full effort without incentives. This paper suggests a novel classification for stakeless matches based on their expected outcome: they are more costly if the indifferent team is more likely to win by playing honestly. Our approach is illustrated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first edition of the competition with 48 teams. We propose a novel format based on imbalanced groups, which substantially reduces the probability of stakeless matches played by the strongest teams according to Monte Carlo simulations. The new design also increases the uncertainty of match outcomes and requires fewer matches. Governing bodies in sports are encouraged to consider our innovative idea in order to enhance the competitiveness of their tournaments.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:OR in sports; Fairness; FIFA World Cup; Simulation; Tournament design
JEL classification:C44 - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
D71 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
Z20 - Sports Economics: General
Subjects:Decision making
Culture, sport
Mathematics, Econometrics
Funders:National Research, Development and Innovation Office, János Bolyai Research Scholarship
Projects:152220 and FK 145838
DOI:10.1016/j.ejor.2025.11.025
ID Code:12454
Deposited By: MTMT SWORD
Deposited On:28 Jan 2026 11:04
Last Modified:28 Jan 2026 11:04

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