A Micro-level Perspective on Migration Intentions: Institutional Trust Matters

Abstract

This paper examines institutional trust as a micro-level behavioural channel associated with migration intentions under uncertainty. Building on institutional economics and behavioural decision-making, it develops a stylised formal framework in which trust in domestic institutions stabilises expectations and increases the perceived value of remaining in the country of origin, thereby lowering the relative attractiveness of migration. The empirical analysis uses individual-level data from the Eurobarometer 70.1 survey covering 27 European Union member states and estimates weighted logistic regression models with country fixed effects. Migration intentions are modelled as a function of alternative measures of institutional trust alongside a comprehensive set of sociodemographic, labour-market, and behavioural controls. Robustness is assessed using functional-form tests, calibration and precision–recall diagnostics, and sensitivity analysis for omitted-variable bias. Across specifications, higher institutional trust is consistently associated with a lower probability of reporting an intention to migrate, with substantively meaningful estimated magnitudes over empirically relevant variation in trust. While the analysis does not claim causal identification, the findings are consistent with the proposed behavioural mechanism linking perceived institutional reliability to individual migration-related expectations. The results highlight institutional trust as a relevant non-economic correlate of migration intentions and suggest that policies strengthening the predictability and credibility of public institutions may be associated with migration intentions by stabilising citizens’ expectations.