Political participation in an electoral autocracy: latent profiles of efficacy, interest, ideology, and trust in Hungary

Abstract

Hungary is often portrayed as an exceptional case of democratic backsliding driven by unique political and cultural conditions. We tested this view by analyzing five waves of European Social Survey data from Hungary (2014–2023) and conducting latent profile analyses based on political interest, political self-efficacy, institutional trust, and ideological self-placement. Across time, four recurring profiles emerged—Moderate system believers, Committed Fidesz voters, Alienated citizens, and Diverse opposition members—with a fifth profile, the Uncommitted opposition, appearing in 2020 and 2023. These profiles do not support a simple picture of Hungarian society as rigidly polarized or cleanly divided into tribal political camps. Instead, they reveal a fragmented and fluid political landscape in which support for the government, opposition, and disengagement take multiple psychological forms, with distinct patterns of institutionalized and non-institutionalized political participation. The findings suggest that democratic backsliding in Hungary is not only a product of exceptional leadership or national idiosyncrasy, but may reflect broader dynamics that can emerge wherever alienation, fatigue, and low efficacy erode democratic engagement. More broadly, the study raises questions about how scholarly narratives of democratic decline are constructed, including how researcher positionality may shape the interpretation of heterogeneous empirical patterns.