Use of cues in forecasting tasks: Evidence from sport predictions

Becser, Norbert, Esse, Bálint and Szántó, Richárd (2018) Use of cues in forecasting tasks: Evidence from sport predictions. Society and Economy, 40 (4). pp. 587-603. DOI https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2018.40.4.7

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2018.40.4.7

Abstract

We asked Hungarian students to make soccer forecasts for a round of the Chilean Primera División, which was selected to minimise recognition heuristics, as this league is not followed by Hungarian soccer fans. Students made their forecasts based on cues about the teams. They received sets of cues of different quality based on previously composed expert evaluations of the given information. Although there were interesting findings regarding expertise and gender differences, the central question concerned how students evaluated the cues they received. Results show a pattern that we interpret as the contrast effect in information sets, which is present independent of gender or expertise.

Item Type:

Article

Uncontrolled Keywords:

sports forecasting, cue value, gender differences

JEL classification:

D81 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D83 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: Search - Learning - Information and Knowledge - Communication - Belief

Divisions:

Faculty of Business Administration > Institute of Business Economics > Department of Decision Sciences

Subjects:

Decision making
Culture, sport

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2018.40.4.7

ID Code:

3977

Deposited By:

Ádám Hoffmann

Deposited On:

21 Feb 2019 13:41