Urban mobility in the future: text analysis of mobility plans

Abstract

Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) or similar documents from 17 European capitals (published between 2010 and 2021) and the European SUMP guidelines have been analysed to understand how cities shape mobility and their transport systems. Text analysis is applied to identify development tendencies in a time- and cost-effective manner, without relying on traditional deep semantic analysis techniques. In addition to traditional statistical indicators, we introduce Category Term Frequency (CTF) as a new measure in text analysis. CTF reveals the number and proportion of words belonging to the same content group, namely specific mobility-related categories. The results indicate that categories describing general aspects such as the future, general transport, environment, and society are more prominently represented compared to more forward-looking categories like automation, electromobility, and sharing. The aggregated CTF of categories describing these emerging aspects is highest in the mobility plans of Copenhagen, Helsinki, Luxembourg, and Vienna, which are considered forerunners in their implementation. In general, the analysis concludes that despite recent technological developments and new business models, the examined mobility plans barely mention terms that would imply radical changes by the 2030s. Strategic documents and, thus, urban mobility developments suggest only a slow transition towards the expected levels of sustainable and smart urban mobility. These findings may contribute to understanding and (re)considering urban and transport development strategies in Europe. Furthermore, this text analysis framework provides planners and other experts with a novel tool to identify the focal areas of mobility-related (or other) documents.